Want to win at least $100K? It’s easy. Try to make right forecast on – what coin from TOP-5 will be the best as for growth during Christmas Week. But is it easy? Sorry – no. We have published already technical analysis. Now – review of historical data.
Is history repeats itself?
They say that history always repeats itself: at first, as a tragedy, then as a farce. But behind these beautiful words is quite rational approach. In terms of financial markets, historical data is often truly repetitive. Can Bitcoin take off again? Or any of the altcoins? We conducted a study and concluded. We remind you that the complexity of the Coins Heroes lottery is not only to determine the growth leader from 5 top coins. But also to determine the fifth of the leaders – if we assume that the quartet of leaders will not change (and we must believe that it will not change – BTC, ETH, XRP, BCH). Although some experts have expressed doubts about the stability of bitcoin cash. In a word – it is necessary to consider the dynamics of not 5 coins, but 7, adding to the quartet Lightcoin, EOS and Stellar.
Bitcoin traditionally shows a noticeable movement at Christmas. Charts almost duplicate themselves from year to year. It is no coincidence – at least, it was not accidental until last year. In 2014, bitcoin showed a fall at Christmas – but this is a matter of bygone days. Judging by bitcoin dynamic, this year we can expect a movement of not less than 20%. But up or down?
Ether like any altcoin seems to follow bitcoin dinamics. But this is not some kind of altcoin – but the coolest altcoin. Therefore, its dynamics is specific. In those years when Bitcoin for Christmas showed a strong growth – Ether responded only with a slight increase. But it grew steeply when corn increased slightly. Ringing any bells? It is obvious that leading cryptocurrencies are starting to behave like leading fiat reserve currencies, the dollar and the euro! The forecast on the ETH? If bitcoin will not take off, Ether – will!
Ripple initially generally showed almost a sine wave in Christmas and New Year’s days. So it was in 2015 and 2016. But in 2017 it followed bitcoin – with apparent reluctance. Following the logic of historical data, Rippl will not surprise us by taking off.
There is no historical data on bitcoin cash, but there is a paradoxical behavior of this bitcoin fork a year ago. When all grew up – it fell. Forecast? Are you kidding?
Litecoin is also a fork of the main cryptocurrency. But it behaves in its own way – it falls until the New Year, then it grows. What to expect this year? One can hardly expect big growth.
EOS is a coin without history. Last year behaved calmly.
Stellar surprised many this year. But in the historical perspective it does not strike the imagination.
If you rely on historical data, the most unpredictable coin is Ripple. And it can both grow and collapse. How to guess? It may be worthwhile to read the continuation of this review about the fundamental factors.
Bitcoin seems to promise growth – according to the tradition that has developed over the years. But fundamental factors can also affect it – see in Part 3.
Of the rest, it’s worth paying attention to the troublemaker of this year – Stellar. It is quite possible that it will be able to surprise us once again.
And you cannot be absolutely sure about the Bitcoin cash. Last year, for unknown reasons, it fell when it would be worth growing. So maybe this year it will grow suddenly ?