ARK Invest, led by CEO Cathie Wood, has reiterated its bold forecast that Bitcoin may surge to $1.5 million per coin by the end of this decade, according to the firm’s latest Big Ideas 2025 report and recent interviews. This projection reflects a potential increase of nearly 1,500% from Bitcoin’s current trading price, which hovers around $94,000.
The firm’s outlook is grounded in several accelerating trends, including increased institutional adoption, Bitcoin’s growing role as “digital gold,” and expanding demand from emerging markets seeking a reliable store of value. ARK Invest anticipates that institutional investors could allocate as much as 6.5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin in the most optimistic scenario, while the base case targets a more modest 2.5% allocation.
In addition to the $1.5 million bull case, ARK Invest has outlined a base case price target of approximately $710,000 and a bear case of $300,000 by 2030, reflecting varying degrees of market penetration and adoption. The firm’s updated models also highlight Bitcoin’s potential to capture up to 60% of gold’s current $18 trillion market capitalization, reinforcing its thesis as a digital alternative to traditional safe-haven assets.
Moreover, ARK has recently raised its most optimistic Bitcoin price target to $2.4 million by 2030, driven by refined assumptions about Bitcoin’s active supply and growing institutional demand, though $1.5 million remains the official forecast. This dramatic upside is supported by data showing declining Bitcoin balances on exchanges, suggesting stronger long-term holder conviction and reduced selling pressure.
Cathie Wood emphasizes that Bitcoin remains in the midst of a multi-year bull market cycle and expects regulatory clarity and broader adoption to further propel its growth. She also links Bitcoin’s future price appreciation to macroeconomic factors, including the resolution of current U.S. economic challenges and the rise of artificial intelligence-driven innovation.
In summary, ARK Invest’s latest analysis underscores a transformative shift in global finance, with Bitcoin positioned as a key asset class poised for substantial growth over the next five years.
