As Bitcoin hovers near its 18-month highs, market analysts suggest that the much-anticipated Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) has yet to make an appearance, despite the impressive 120% surge in BTC price this year. The absence of significant returns to the network from short-term speculators is noted, even as the number of smaller wallets continues to rise.
Look Into Bitcoin creator Philip Swift highlighted the Realized Cap HODL Waves (RHODL waves) metric as a key indicator of the current market sentiment. RHODL waves analyze the age groups of BTC supply and compare it to the price at which it was last moved on-chain. While there is a gradual increase in warmer-colored low timeframe waves as coins are transferred on-chain, Swift remarked, “No FOMO yet. We’re still early.”
Examining Bitcoin supply age bands, Onchained, a contributor to CryptoQuant, utilized the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) indicator to emphasize that those who increased their BTC exposure before the 2021 all-time highs are currently in the red. However, a potential turning point for bull market hodlers is on the horizon.
Analyzing NUPL across different age bands, Onchained noted, “Their NUPL nearing the profitability benchmark of 0 suggests a potential break-even point if Bitcoin continues its rally beyond $39,000.” The data from CryptoQuant indicates that only 11.6% of unspent transaction outputs (UTXOs) are currently at a loss, with Bitcoin profitability nearing a crucial juncture in the market.