In a recent market update dated February 2, trading platform DecenTrader cautioned Bitcoin enthusiasts about an upcoming “sell the news event” tied to the halving, asserting that the price action may follow a familiar pattern.
DecenTrader’s CEO and co-founder, Filbfilb, outlined the projected BTC price roadmap for 2024, indicating a period of sideways movement for the next month before the market reacts to the anticipated block subsidy halving on April 18.
The analysis suggests a surge in buying approximately two months before the halving, followed by a potential sell-off resembling the one witnessed during the launch of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in January. Filbfilb emphasized the importance of testing investors’ resolve during a corrective phase before the expected FOMO demand.
With around 75 days left until the halving, Filbfilb pointed to a historical trend, noting that Bitcoin tends to initiate a sell-the-news dynamic ahead of a halving. Despite potential market turbulence in Q1 due to macroeconomic and geopolitical factors, Filbfilb expects BTC/USD to reach current two-year highs of $49,000 before an ETF-inspired downturn.
Looking beyond the halving, the path to price discovery is anticipated to open up by late Q4 of 2024, resembling the trend observed during the 2020 halving year. Filbfilb warned against overly optimistic expectations, stating that Bitcoin’s market cycle schematic, shaped by investors’ emotions, is unlikely to break favorably this time.
As the coming months present challenges for traders with potential risk-asset turbulence, including concerns about the weakness in the U.S. banking system, experts like Arthur Hayes foresee a critical moment in March. While some anticipate a new all-time high for BTC/USD by the end of 2025, Filbfilb remains cautiously pragmatic about Bitcoin’s performance in the weeks ahead, urging against expectations that “it’s different this time.