The recent Bitcoin (BTC) price dip, which has seen the cryptocurrency drop up to 15% since the weekend, has sparked renewed discussions among traders and analysts about where the market might bottom out.
Some analysts, such as Mark Cullen, are utilizing the Elliott Wave method to suggest that Bitcoin could see a final down move to around $59,000 as soon as April 17, completing a larger corrective formation. This would represent the largest drawdown versus recent all-time highs of around 20%.
Meanwhile, other analysts, like Matthew Hyland, are closely watching the upcoming weekly close, as Bitcoin has lost the support of its 10-week simple moving average (SMA), currently at $64,130. Hyland notes that the close will be crucial in determining the staying power of the current pullback.
Looking at longer timeframes, Binh Dang, a contributor to on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, predicts that Bitcoin could stay lower for longer before rechallenging its highs. Dang’s adjusted cumulative value days destroyed (CVDD) metric suggests that BTC/USD may need to test and accumulate at a “Phase 2” level, which could bring the price down to just under $40,000 in a “worst-case” scenario.
However, Dang does not expect the current geopolitical factors driving the downmove to reach the levels of panic seen during the COVID-19 cross-market crash in March 2020.
Despite the potential for further downside, some analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s long-term prospects. For example, Cathie Wood of ARK Invest has stated that the firm’s long-term Bitcoin price target is “well above” $1 million, citing the recent regulatory approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in the United States as a major milestone that has “pulled forward the timeline.”
As the Bitcoin market navigates these uncertain times, traders and investors will be closely monitoring key technical levels and on-chain metrics to gauge the potential depth and duration of the current pullback.
