Bitcoin price action has been volatile lately, with the cryptocurrency struggling to maintain support above $66,000 after a rejection from the $70,000 level. This weakness has increased the risk of long liquidations, particularly if the price drops below the crucial $63,600 support zone.
According to data from DecenTrader, long BTC liquidations would begin if the price falls back to $63,600, representing a 3.5% decline from current levels. The liquidation danger intensifies further below $54,000, with risks extending down to $45,000.
However, the overall medium to long-term trend for Bitcoin remains bullish. The cryptocurrency is trading above its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, indicating a positive outlook. Additionally, the realized cap for short-term holders with an aggregate cost basis around $65,000 suggests that recently acquired BTC is being retained instead of sold, signaling accumulation among this cohort.
Interestingly, the proportion of wealth held by new investors is declining and is well below the levels typically witnessed at macro market tops. This highlights a general shift in investor behavior back towards HODLing, with long-term investors currently holding 45% of the network wealth, which is relatively elevated compared to levels seen near macro cycle topping events.
The distribution pressure by the long-term holder cohort remains relatively light and is declining, providing further evidence that the Bitcoin supply remains dominated by longer-term, high-conviction investors.
While the short-term price action remains uncertain, with the potential for further downside, the on-chain data suggests that the overall market sentiment is shifting towards a more bullish long-term outlook for Bitcoin. Investors should closely monitor the $63,600 support level and be prepared for potential volatility in the coming days and weeks.