Bitcoin’s Post-Halving Price Decline

Bitcoin’s price has experienced a significant drop of 11% since its fourth halving on April 20, 2024, which took place at 12:09 am UTC. Initially, Bitcoin was trading around $64,000 on the halving date, and briefly rallied to over $67,000 by April 22. However, the momentum did not sustain, and the price has since fallen to below $57,000 as of May 1, according to the latest data from CoinGecko.

Currently, Bitcoin stands at $57,362, marking a 7% decrease in the last 24 hours and an overall 17% decline over the past month. This downturn has come as a surprise to many who anticipated a price increase post-halving, a pattern observed in previous cycles.

Historically, Bitcoin halvings, which reduce the reward for mining new blocks by half, have been followed by substantial price increases. For instance, after the 2016 halving, Bitcoin’s value surged by approximately 3,000% over the following 17 months, peaking at $20,000 in December 2017.

This year’s halving was preceded by an unprecedented bull run, with Bitcoin reaching new all-time highs just before the event. Mati Greenspan, founder of Quantum Economics, commented on the recent price actions, noting that the significant bullish trend prior to the halving set unique preconditions. “Despite the recent pullback, Bitcoin is still up 35% since the beginning of the year,” Greenspan explained.

He further elaborated that the current price drop could be anticipated given the broader economic context and recent downturns in the stock market. “The market’s reaction post-halving aligns with broader economic trends and expectations of changes in Federal Reserve policies,” Greenspan added.

Predictions prior to the halving had varied, with some analysts forecasting a decline. For instance, JPMorgan analysts in March 2024 suggested that Bitcoin might fall to around $42,000 post-halving. Markus Thielen, CEO and head analyst at 10x Research, also predicted a potential drop to $52,000, attributing the recent rally largely to inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, which have slowed significantly in the past month.

Despite the current downturn, some market observers like investment researcher Lyn Alden remain optimistic about Bitcoin’s potential to reach new highs in 2024, citing factors beyond just the halving and U.S. ETFs.

As the market continues to digest the impacts of the halving, investors and analysts alike are closely monitoring Bitcoin’s movements to gauge the longer-term implications of this key event in the cryptocurrency’s lifecycle.