The $100,000 call option is currently the most popular bitcoin bet on the crypto exchange Deribit.
According to Deribit, traders have invested over $990 million in BTC $100,000 call options, signaling strong bullish sentiment. Meanwhile, the $45,000 put option is the most favored among contracts set to expire around the U.S. elections. On the decentralized prediction market Polymarket, however, traders see only a 15% chance of bitcoin hitting $100,000 by the end of the year.
For those looking for signs of optimism in the bitcoin market, the nearly $1 billion in call options at the $100,000 strike price on Deribit offers compelling evidence. As of now, the total dollar value of these active call options stands at over $993 million, making it the largest open interest among all BTC options on the platform, according to Deribit Metrics. On Deribit, each options contract represents one bitcoin.
The second most popular strike is the $70,000 call, which has more than $800 million in open interest. Notably, call options account for over 50% of the total BTC options open interest, which is valued at $14.15 billion on the exchange. “The highest concentration of open interest appears at the $100K and $70K strikes, which reflects the bullish sentiment dominating the market,” noted crypto trading firm Wintermute in a report shared with CoinDesk.
A call option gives the buyer the right, but not the obligation, to purchase an asset at a predetermined price before a specific expiration date, typically indicating bullish sentiment. Traders anticipating price surges often buy out-of-the-money options like the $100,000 call, as they are cheaper compared to those with strike prices closer to the current spot price.
U.S. Election Options
Bitcoin options expiring on November 8, the day U.S. election results are expected, have accumulated a total open interest of $938 million. Of this, $117 million is concentrated in $45,000 put options, as traders seek downside protection ahead of this pivotal event.
“The volatility surface suggests a downside bias until late October and November, when the market starts favoring call options over puts. Current positioning indicates the potential for a post-election rally,” said Jake Ostrovskis, an OTC trader at Wintermute, in an email to CoinDesk.
Open interest for December contracts is predominantly in call options, with the $100,000 strike leading the way. This reflects market expectations of a potential year-end rally.
Skepticism on Polymarket
On the decentralized betting platform Polymarket, however, traders are not as confident in bitcoin hitting $100,000 by year’s end. At press time, shares in the “Will Bitcoin Hit $100K in 2024” contract are trading at 15 cents, suggesting only a slim chance of bitcoin reaching six figures. The contract will resolve to “Yes” if BTC’s price on Coinbase hits $100,000 or more before December 31.
Meanwhile, traders on Polymarket see a little over a 50% probability of bitcoin surpassing its all-time high of $73,798 before the end of the year.
