Could Dogecoin Be Reliving Late 2020 Once More?

Recent price movements in DOGE are reminiscent of late 2020, when the meme token surged over 1,000% in early 2021 after bouncing from a bear market.

The current price action of DOGE bears a striking resemblance to late 2020. This similarity is noteworthy as DOGE experienced a monumental rally in the early months of 2021.

According to the Dow Theory, asset price trends often repeat themselves, akin to Mark Twain’s famous quote: “History never repeats itself, but often rhymes.” Therefore, traders frequently analyze current price action against historical patterns to anticipate future movements.

Dogecoin, the leading meme cryptocurrency, has recently broken above its widely followed 50, 100, and 200-week simple moving averages, ending a prolonged 20-month consolidation period within the depths of a bear market. Notably, the 50-week SMA has crossed above the 100-week SMA, indicating a bullish momentum shift.

These developments closely mirror those observed in late 2020, which preceded DOGE’s explosive rally in the early months of 2021.

After spending 20 months trading between 5 and 15 cents, DOGE broke out of its bear market consolidation phase late last month. A similar consolidation period lasting 20 months occurred in late 2019 and 2020, setting the stage for a significant rally in early 2021, during which DOGE surged by 3,600% to 37 cents by May.

Considering this historical fractal, DOGE’s trajectory may favor further upside. However, it’s worth noting that DOGE’s uptrends are typically short-lived, lasting around six months, followed by a prolonged consolidation or bottoming process spanning nearly three years.

Another similarity between the current environment and 2020 is the anticipation of interest rate cuts by major central banks, including the Federal Reserve. Expectations of renewed liquidity easing could benefit riskier assets, similar to the conditions in 2020 when central banks maintained near-zero interest rates.

Nevertheless, it’s essential to recognize that past performance does not guarantee future results, particularly in the case of speculative cryptocurrencies like DOGE. A potential downturn in Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency, could exert downward pressure on DOGE and other meme coins.