Bettors were confident that Telegram CEO Pavel Durov would remain detained until at least September, but his unexpected release on Wednesday turned the tables on the crypto-based prediction market.
Polymarket bettors were caught off guard by Durov’s early release on August 28, costing them a collective $270,000 in missed winnings. French authorities released Durov on bail after he posted a 5 million-euro ($5.6 million) bond, agreeing to report to police twice weekly and remain in the country. This swift decision came as a surprise, given that most bettors had anticipated a longer detention.
Before his release, the chances of Durov being freed in August were considered low, with odds hovering around 30%. A release before October seemed more likely, with probabilities between 75% and 90%. However, the odds for an August release surged to 50% just hours before the announcement.
Polymarket’s prediction system involves betting on “Yes” or “No” outcomes, with each share paying out $1 in USDC, a stablecoin pegged to the U.S. dollar, if the prediction proves correct. Bettors who placed their money on Durov’s continued detention missed out on substantial gains, as they underestimated the likelihood of his early release.
Durov’s considerable wealth and multiple nationalities, including citizenship in the United Arab Emirates—a country that does not extradite its citizens—likely fueled expectations that French authorities would hold him as long as possible. However, this assumption proved incorrect.
One user, Champ, correctly predicted Durov’s release in August and before October, becoming the largest holder of the “Yes” side of both contracts. Champ earned $26,138 from these bets, bringing their total earnings to $56,638 after adding the original stake.
Another contract on Polymarket currently gives Durov a 6% chance of fleeing France by mid-September, indicating that bettors largely expect him to comply with his bail conditions.
While Durov’s legal situation has been a hot topic in the crypto community, it isn’t expected to be a major focus when Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump holds a live town hall in Wisconsin later this week. Bettors only see a 14% chance that Trump will mention Durov, compared to a 92% likelihood that he will say “MAGA” and an 84% chance of him using the term “Border Czar.”
However, as Trump has shown in the past, he can be unpredictable. In a recent interview with Elon Musk, bettors wagered over $250,000 on the expectation that Trump would say “Tesla,” but he only referred to the company indirectly as “your cars.”
