“Crypto Market Rallies as Traders Evaluate Oversold Conditions and Await SEC Decision on Bitcoin ETF”
Today, the cryptocurrency market has witnessed a significant surge, building upon the gains from last Friday. This upward momentum can be attributed to a combination of technical and fundamental factors.
One key factor driving the market’s positive performance is the assessment of oversold levels across various top crypto assets. On June 17, the market capitalization of cryptocurrencies increased by more than 2%, reaching $1.05 trillion, marking a remarkable 7.5% rise from the low of $975.25 billion recorded just two days ago. Bitcoin, the dominant cryptocurrency constituting nearly 50% of the market, experienced a rebound of 8.5% from its recent low of $24,750 observed on June 15.
Furthermore, the second-largest cryptocurrency, Ether, has surged over 9% in the past two days. Even last week’s underperforming assets, such as Solana, Cardano, and Polygon, have shown signs of recovery, with gains ranging from 8% to 15% in the same period.
Interestingly, the market capitalization began recovering shortly after the daily relative strength index (RSI) dipped close to the 30 mark, indicating a state of near “oversold” conditions. Technically, when the RSI reaches such levels, it often triggers a price recovery or consolidation, reinforcing the positive sentiment.
In addition to the technical aspects, the market’s rally has been fueled by growing speculation surrounding the potential approval of the first Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). BlackRock, a renowned investment firm overseeing assets worth $9.5 trillion, submitted an application for a Bitcoin ETF on July 16. While the SEC has historically rejected previous Bitcoin ETF proposals, BlackRock’s application has generated optimism due to the company’s vast experience and success in ETF offerings, with only one rejection out of 576 applications.
Since the news of BlackRock’s application, the crypto market has seen a 4.5% increase. Some market analysts, including Lark Davis, anticipate that an SEC approval could lead BlackRock to acquire all available Bitcoins across crypto exchanges, considering that only around 10% of the total Bitcoin supply, valued at approximately $50 billion, is currently held on exchanges.
Looking ahead to the second half of 2023, the crypto market’s technical outlook appears promising. It has been consolidating within what seems to be a bull flag pattern since April 2023, which suggests a potential continuation of the recovery trend, possibly pushing the market capitalization towards $1.37 trillion, representing a 35% increase from current levels. However, bears will be looking to break below the lower trendline of the bull flag, risking the invalidation of the bullish setup. In such a bearish scenario, the market could drop towards the significant support level at $875.50 billion, previously observed during the periods of June-November 2022 and March 2023.