A recent comprehensive study by Swan, a Bitcoin-focused financial services firm, reveals that most altcoins suffer severe losses against Bitcoin (BTC) over time, reinforcing BTC’s status as the premier asset for long-term value preservation. The analysis tracked the performance of the top 300 altcoins over a five-year period, focusing on how quickly these cryptocurrencies lose 90% of their value relative to Bitcoin after hitting their all-time highs.
Key findings show that the median altcoin experiences a 90% drop against BTC within just 10 to 20 months. Some altcoins, such as Terra (LUNA1), Ontology Gas (ONG), and Bitgert (BRISE), saw this drastic decline in under two months. More established altcoins like Cardano (ADA) and XRP took about 36 months to reach similar losses, while Monero (XMR) endured a “slow agony,” taking up to six years to depreciate by 90% relative to Bitcoin.
Swan’s data also highlights that 45 altcoins have yet to hit the 90% loss threshold but still show an average drawdown of 76%, with even the best performers down 43% against BTC. This pattern suggests that altcoins are not hedging Bitcoin’s risk but instead consistently underperforming it.
The research underscores a systemic weakness in the altcoin market, where despite their marketing as Bitcoin alternatives, these tokens fail to maintain sustained value compared to Bitcoin. Swan executives point out that long-term outperformance by altcoins is extremely rare, and survivorship bias has obscured the widespread decline within the altcoin sector.
In contrast, Bitcoin remains the most reliable cryptocurrency for capital preservation, maintaining strong resilience even amid market disruptions and regulatory uncertainties. This dominance is further supported by Bitcoin’s decentralized security model and predictable supply schedule, features that many altcoins lack.
Overall, the Swan study serves as a stark reminder that “HODLing” altcoins is far riskier than holding Bitcoin, which continues to lead confidently in the volatile crypto landscape.
