Bitcoin has completed a full roundtrip in price movement over the past week. We began last Monday near the $64,000 mark. Throughout the week, the price dipped to the $60,000 range, but by last night, it had climbed back up to $63,900, almost matching the level we saw at the start of the week.
While some may view this price action as uneventful, those who closely follow Bitcoin cycles can explain it from a technical standpoint. When analyzing Bitcoin and the broader cryptocurrency market, understanding Bitcoin’s 60-day cycles is essential. Key indicators such as the Stoch RSI and Stochastic help determine our position within these cycles.
By examining the Stochastic indicator over 3-day and 1-week periods, we can identify some noteworthy patterns. The 3-day indicator peaked at the end of September, when Bitcoin hit $66,000, and has since declined, contributing to the price drop to the $60,000 range. From a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin established a mid-cycle low in its current 60-day cycle and has now begun the second phase of this cycle.
Price development depends on the violet line
The real test for Bitcoin is approaching in the next few days—it needs to hold steady and rise. If this happens, the 3-day Stochastic indicator will reset, setting the stage for a bullish October.
Last Thursday, Bitcoin reached its mid-cycle low, confirmed this low on Friday, and triggered a buy signal on the 12-hour timeframe. This appears to be a textbook cycle setup, but the real challenge lies in the days ahead.
Altcoins: $SUI
In addition to analyzing cycles, another strategy for improving success in crypto trading is by comparing a project’s Total Value Locked (TVL) with the development of its token. While there is never a 100% correlation, typically, if a token’s price surges while the TVL remains flat, it indicates the project may be overvalued. Conversely, if the price lags behind TVL growth, the project is likely undervalued. Take a look at the following SUI chart:
We can observe a beautiful TVL & $SUI price correlation
Take a look at the red line development during the summer of 2023. The price fluctuated around $0.30, while the TVL plummeted from $900M to around $100M, representing an 80% decrease. However, this was followed by a significant rally, as the price surged from the $0.50 range in October to $2.00 by April. During this time, you could also observe a gradual increase in the TVL on SUI.
April marked the token’s most overvalued point, and within a few months, the price dropped back to around $0.50, presenting a prime buying opportunity. Notably, the TVL didn’t experience a similar sharp decline, dropping only from $900M to around $500M before bouncing back in September, while the price remained below $1. These types of opportunities in the market are often short-lived, requiring quick action to capitalize on them.
EigenLayer ($EIGEN) – Most Hyped Restaking Project Faces Security Issues, Price Tanks
Last week, EigenLayer experienced a hack, causing its price to plummet by $3.00, down from $4.00 just a week prior. Adding to the pressure, a major token unlock is scheduled for October 15th, with over 1 million tokens—worth more than $3 million—set to be released. Despite these challenges, the EigenLayer founders remained composed, assuring the community that the hack was an isolated incident and would not hinder future project development.
However, investors remain uncertain about the token’s potential, given the recent security breach, the upcoming token unlock, and the large Fully Diluted Value (FDV) of nearly $6 billion.
Solana (SOL) Recovery – Extremely Strong Performance Over the Last 2 Years
$SOL making investors happy since the 2022 FTX crash
Solana has delivered outstanding performance over the past two years. It’s tempting to look back at SOL’s resilience against Bitcoin and think, “If only I had gotten in when SOL was just $9…” However, by examining the weekly cycles (the red line in the chart), you’ll notice that in the last 4 out of 4 instances where the red line dipped below 20 (indicating a cycle bottom), SOL outperformed Bitcoin in the following weeks.
Currently, we’re in a similar scenario, as SOL has just bounced off its cycle bottom. Is this a good buying opportunity? While we don’t offer investment advice, the signs are there, and you know what to do.
Most Popular Telegram Game: Hamster Combat (HMSTR)
Nobody wants to see such a price development…
Remember Hamster Combat? Yes, the game where you work your way through various quests to become the top CEO of a crypto exchange. It gained significant attention with its unique tapping gameplay and made headlines after getting listed on major exchanges like Binance and MEXC. However, like many altcoins, it faced volatility post-listing, with its price dropping 33.63% in the last 10 days.
In recent days, however, $HMST has shown resilience, bouncing back with a 10% increase. What about its cycles? It’s still too early to analyze cycles for such a recently listed token. Typically, cycles need at least 8 months of price data for meaningful analysis, so for now, we leave HMST’s price action to speculators and short-term traders.
The listing of $HMST brings to mind BONK’s debut on Binance in December 2023. Initially, BONK trended downward for 3 weeks, losing 70% of its value, and it seemed like another unsuccessful “meme” project. However, buyers eventually stepped in, pushing BONK above its listing price just 3 months later.
Final Thoughts
In summary, Bitcoin’s recent price movement aligns with its mid-cycle pattern, suggesting a potentially bullish October if momentum continues. SUI appears undervalued, with increasing TVL, presenting a strong buying opportunity. Meanwhile, EigenLayer ($EIGEN) faces short-term uncertainty due to a recent hack and upcoming token unlocks. Solana (SOL) maintains its pattern of strong rebounds following cycle lows, making it an appealing option. Hamster Combat ($HMSTR) remains speculative but could follow in the footsteps of previous meme token recoveries. Timing and thorough analysis will be crucial in seizing these opportunities.
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