Exactly 2 weeks before the important event for crypto – hearings in USA Congress on Libra – and the market rushed up again, as if pushing from the $ 9,775 level. Will it fly up to $ 15K? This was what we were chatted about after BTC dropped below $10 K.
To give specifics or avoid specific forecasts?
That’s right, you need to behave like that – avoid specific forecasts – in order to gain the fame of an oracle. Most practicing traders behave this way in the public information space.
But community appreciates analysts due to specifics. The Coinstelegram analytical unit, risking to be substituted by a barrage of criticism, still seeks to formulate specific forecasts.
We proceed with the following data:
- Bitcoin and crypto have become a factor in the global financial market, often correlated with gold as a “safe harbor”.
- World finance is in a zone of turbulence due to inadequate political behavior of Donald Trump and the leadership of UK.
- China is the main factor influencing the economy of the USA and the world.
Extrapolating this data to the current behavior gives the following results:
- Iran continues to develop nuclear weapons as a result of the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal. With ballistic missiles as a means of delivery, Iran will soon be able to threaten the United States and conduct an absolutely independent policy in the region and the world. In the region, it threatens Israel and Saudi Arabia and supports Syria. This is a big minus for the dollar and oil (petrodollar).
- At the G20 Summit, China and the United States agreed to reduce tensions in a trade war – this is a plus for the dollar.
- Trump had an unexpected meeting with Kim Jong-un on the border of two Koreas – a small plus for the dollar.
- The European Union is consolidating, the election of the head of the European Commission passed fairly quickly and with maximum agreement – a minus for the dollar and pound.
- Brexit is no longer interesting to anyone – minus for a pound.
How did crypto react? Sino-American and American-North Korean flirting reassured traders to the dollar — crypto fell. Iran’s statement about the continued enrichment of uranium returned markets to turbulence – crypto rose.
And it continues to rise on news from Europe.
- Rise to $ 15 K by July 15, with possible corrections along the way.
- Drop to $ 11 K by July 17 (possibly to $ 9 K).
- Futher rise after July 17.
Trend does not change
Why are we bullish after a Libra congressional hearing? Gamechanger Changpeng CZ Zhao, CEO of Binance, subtly hinted that he would not mind joining the Libra project. We noted this on June 19th. Recently, Binance strategy officer Gin Chao explicitly confirmed our assumption:
– We have engaged with Facebook. We’re very excited about the Libra project. I think a few months ago, without as much detail, we weren’t certain that this was something we could cooperate with, but it looks like they’re heading in a direction that we’re extremely excited about – and I think the whole industry is.
Binance has a good analytical unit, has repeatedly proved this. Consequently, they calculated that the hearings on Libra would be held with a positive. Although an attempt to manipulate the market is also possible.
How much will the Corn rise after July 17th? Not too much. Already, the dominance surpasses 62%. At that level it was on the eve of the December 2017 rally. After that, alts were pulled up, and the dominance fell. Many analysts are constantly talking about the very likely rise of alts. Although now alts are behind BTC in dynamics.
But we assume they will rise, in the longterm even faster if to compare with BTC.
This conclusion is made on the basis of the data that is available today and on the basis of the main players’ behavior extrapolation. We attribute this to fundamental factors that may also change over time.